Christmas comes early: How brands can sleigh the holiday sales season

Australia’s Christmas peak has moved forward. Consumers are shopping earlier and stretching budgets across months. As Afterpay’s ANZ boss Katrina Konstas writes, the brands leaning into this new rhythm are the ones winning holiday spend.

The Australian holiday shopping season has undergone a fundamental transformation. What was once a December sprint has evolved into a strategic, months-long journey driven by economic pressures and changing consumer priorities. For brands and retailers, understanding this shift isn't just helpful - it's essential for survival.

Our latest Festive Forecast reveals a consumer base in transition: more than a third of Australians feel genuinely stressed about festive costs, yet this anxiety is driving innovation rather than retreat.

Rather than abandoning their holiday traditions, 43% are starting their shopping earlier, with two-thirds completing purchases between September and November, capitalising on trade moments like BFCM rather than waiting for December. This isn't just budgeting - it's strategic consumer behaviour.

SEE MORE: Australians cut festive budgets, but still protect gifts and food

This shift represents more than seasonal adjustment - it signals a permanent evolution in Australian retail behaviour. The traditional holiday retail calendar, built around last-minute December purchases, is becoming obsolete. Brands clinging to old models risk missing the majority of their potential revenue window.

At Afterpay, we've observed that early holiday shoppers using flexible payment options have higher average order values and are significantly more likely to discover new brands - demonstrating that when consumers feel financially empowered, they become more adventurous and valuable customers.

This challenges the assumption that cost-conscious shoppers are less valuable; instead, they're simply more engaged and intentional.

The data reveals consumers aren't just shopping earlier - they're shopping smarter. Nearly half hold out for significant discounts on big-ticket purchases, while 44% plan to spend less than last year.

Yet this apparent contradiction - wanting to spend less while expecting better deals - actually represents sophisticated consumer behaviour that retailers can capitalise on.

Payment flexibility has moved from nice-to-have to necessity. Our data shows 40% of shoppers plan to use Buy Now, Pay Later services, rising to 48% among those feeling financial pressure.

The most successful brands are already adapting. They understand that flexibility and convenience are now table stakes, offering seamless omnichannel experiences that meet consumers wherever they are in their shopping journey.

As Deloitte's 2025 Retail Holiday Report confirms, retailers expect to generate half their holiday revenue during November's major sales events, making it clear that "winning shoppers means delivering real value and seamless, convenient experiences - especially during November's big sales moments."

But discounts alone won't guarantee success. While 27% of shoppers now expect at least 50% off, the brands who truly stand out combine value with experience. They're creating opportunities for discovery - almost half of shoppers explore brands they haven't purchased from before during the holiday season, and two-thirds actively support small businesses.

The implications for business strategy are profound. Campaigns must span the extended buying window, with promotions carefully orchestrated to capture attention without overwhelming increasingly selective consumers. Value must be balanced with experience, transforming one-off transactions into lasting relationships through personalised promotions and a frictionless checkout experience.

The businesses who thrive this holiday season won't be those with the deepest discounts, but those who understand that modern consumers are sophisticated, strategic and seek genuine value beyond price alone. They're building year-round relationships, not chasing seasonal transactions.

The festive season has evolved from a December sprint into a multi-month marathon. Success requires endurance, strategy and above all, respect for consumers who are more informed and intentional than ever before.

The question isn't whether this shift will continue - it's whether retailers will adapt quickly enough to capitalise on it.