Australian ad market ends 2025 flat as second-half wipes out election gains

Australia’s advertising market finished 2025 in softer shape, with early-year growth driven by the Federal Election erased by a sharp second-half pullback, according to new data from Guideline SMI.

Total ad spend across agency-traded media was down just 2% for the full calendar year, after modest growth in the first half was offset by a 5.2% slump in the second six months. December proved particularly challenging, with ad spend back 9.2% year-on-year as advertisers trimmed fourth-quarter budgets amid ongoing economic caution.

Guideline SMI APAC managing director Jane Ractliffe said outdoor remained the strongest-performing major medium for the year, delivering first-half growth of 11.6% and the largest revenue uplift of any channel across 2025 at 5.3%. Digital followed as the next-best performer, with total bookings up 1.2% over the year.

However, momentum faded late in the year.

“But caution has certainly returned to the market in December and this time even Outdoor is affected,” Ractliffe said. “Indeed, in the second half of the year the only media growing bookings was online streaming services where ad revenues lifted 9.2%.”

While overall December ad spend fell sharply, a handful of channels showed resilience. Linear TV bookings grew 0.4% year-on-year in December, with metropolitan TV up 4.6% - largely driven by Seven’s cricket broadcast and growth at SBS - while Direct Pay TV surged 22.4%. Cinema also recorded a 3.6% increase in bookings for the month.

Ractliffe cautioned that December digital numbers are still being finalised, with current figures showing a 9.3% decline largely due to delays in confirming programmatic campaign costs. Programmatic ad spend was down 18.4% at the time of reporting.

Category-level movements underline the uneven nature of the market.

In the first half of the financial year, government ad spend fell 31.7%, removing around $68 million from the market, while food/produce/dairy advertising declined 19%. By contrast, Insurance brands increased media bookings by 20.3% over the same period, while Banks lifted spend by 8.8%.

While the data paints a picture of a cautious market, brand investment is not disappearing. The report shows a shift toward channels that can demonstrate resilience, performance and flexibility.

Outdoor’s continued strength, streaming’s growth, and late-year stability in premium video formats suggest advertisers are prioritising scalable reach environments that combine brand impact with measurable outcomes, while pulling back in categories and channels facing structural pressure.

With bookings in Q4 down 6.6% to levels not seen since 2019, Ractliffe said the final quarter softness was driven by a 30% decline in government advertising and double-digit falls in retail and food/produce/dairy.

The message heading into 2026: expect continued scrutiny on budgets, heavier weighting toward proven channels, and increasing pressure on media and marketing leaders to justify every dollar with clear business impact.