Philippine sari-sari stores increase stock orders as floods disrupt supply chains

Sari-sari store owners in the Philippines increased their restocking orders even as consumers cut spending during nearly a month of severe flooding across Luzon, according to a study by Filipino technology startup Packworks.

The study analysed transaction data from its Sari IQ business intelligence platform across flooded municipalities in Metro Manila, Bulacan, Pangasinan and Tarlac, comparing activity from 10 July to 9 August 2026 with the period from 10 August to 9 September 2026.

While the floods affected local retail differently across the four areas, the data showed a clear divergence between consumer purchasing and retailer restocking. End-consumer basket sizes declined in three provinces, while store owners increased their inventory purchases across all four.

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Consumer basket sizes fell 12% in Metro Manila, 8% in Pangasinan and 7.6% in Tarlac. In contrast, store owners' restocking basket sizes rose 17% in Metro Manila, 18% in Pangasinan, 15% in Tarlac and 8% in Bulacan.

"Our data reveals a fascinating divergence during climate shocks: while end-consumers tighten their belts and make smaller, 'tingi' purchases, sari-sari store owners do the exact opposite by placing significantly larger restocking orders," said Andoy Montiel, chief data officer at Packworks.

"This proves that micro-retailers act as proactive buffers for the local economy. Rather than waiting out the storm, store owners rush to secure inventory before roads close or supply chains stall, ensuring that essential goods remain accessible right at their neighbours' doorsteps."

Bulacan bears the brunt

The impact was particularly pronounced in Bulacan, where flooding disrupted commerce in areas including Malolos, Calumpit, Hagonoy and Bocaue.

Packworks found that median gross merchandise value (GMV) at larger sari-sari stores, referred to in the study as megastores, across flooded Bulacan municipalities fell 33%. Median transaction counts declined 18%, while smaller sari-sari stores recorded a 28% drop in median GMV.

The study also highlighted a widening gap between retailers of different sizes. Larger stores in affected Bulacan municipalities recorded a combined GMV increase of approximately 1 million pesos (US$16,000), while smaller stores absorbed a combined loss of approximately 1 million pesos (US$16,000).

The findings suggest that customers shifted towards better-stocked stores when flooding made larger markets and grocery outlets difficult to reach. One store owner in Calumpit, identified in the report as Pinky Store, said: "Customers bought more from our store because bigger markets/groceries were flooded or hard to reach."

The picture was less severe elsewhere. Packworks' research report found that sales at larger sari-sari stores rose 6% in Metro Manila and 9% in Tarlac, while smaller stores recorded declines of 4% and increases of 13%, respectively. In Pangasinan, sales at larger stores fell 5%, while smaller stores saw a 4% increase.

The differences underline how the effects of flooding varied by location, rather than producing a uniform downturn across all affected retail markets.

Relief supplies shape shopping baskets

Despite the disruption, the leading product categories remained broadly consistent before and during the floods. Cigarettes retained the top position across all four provinces, followed by everyday household and personal care products such as detergent, powdered coffee, shampoo and conditioner.

According to Packworks, interviews with store owners suggested that government relief packages, locally known as ayuda, helped meet demand for basic food supplies, including rice and noodles. This left neighbourhood retailers serving other immediate needs, from powdered coffee during cold weather to detergent for cleaning homes after floodwaters receded.

Store owners also described adjusting their operating hours and inventory decisions to keep serving customers despite rising water levels and transport disruptions. Some prioritised wholesale orders during brief lulls in the flooding, while others temporarily closed or reduced their hours as water reached knee- and chest-deep levels.

The findings highlight the role of small neighbourhood retailers in maintaining access to everyday products when flooding disrupts transport and larger retail outlets.

"Sari-sari stores are more than just places where people buy things. When disaster strikes and bigger businesses shut down, these stores are the ones that stay open and keep their communities going," said Ibba Bernardo, co-founder of Packworks.

"The saripreneurs behind them are on the front lines. Giving them access to digital tools, working capital, and reliable logistics isn't just about helping their businesses survive. It's about making entire communities more resilient and better prepared for whatever comes next."

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