Oil price shock drives 90% sales surge in Philippines' sari-sari stores, Packworks says

Rising global oil prices linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict are beginning to reshape purchasing behaviour at the very base of the Philippine retail economy, with sari-sari stores reporting a sharp surge in both sales and inventory stockpiling.

According to new data from Packworks, gross merchandise value (GMV) across its network of 300,000 sari-sari stores reached 3.73 billion pesos (US$61.7 million) in March, up from 1.97 billion pesos (US$32.6 million) in February – marking a 90% month-on-month increase. The insights are based on more than one million transactions recorded via its Sari.PH Pro platform.

The spike reflects a coordinated response from both micro-retailers and consumers anticipating rising logistics costs and potential supply disruptions. The most dramatic jump occurred on 21 March, when GMV surged by 265%, just days after the announcement of double-digit fuel price increases on 17 March.

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At the store level, the behaviour is driven by caution. A sari-sari store owner from Uson, Masbate, said, “We stocked up because we were worried about running out of supplies and possible delays in deliveries.”

Reports of delivery lead times stretching up to three weeks in some regions have further reinforced bulk purchasing, particularly for fast-moving consumer goods.

Beyond retailer behaviour, the data also signals a shift in consumer habits. Traditionally defined by ‘tingi’ or small, frequent purchases, Filipino households are now consolidating spending to offset rising transportation costs.

Average basket sizes rose significantly, from 337-1,097 pesos (US$5.57-US$18.14) in February to 597-1,560 pesos (US$9.87-US$25.8) in March. Meanwhile, transaction volumes grew by just 17%, indicating fewer but larger purchases per visit.

“With growing uncertainty and rising oil and commodity prices, our data suggests that sari-sari store owners are proactively adjusting their purchasing strategies. Larger basket sizes and increased inventory levels indicate a shift toward preparedness for potential supply disruptions and rising costs,” said Packworks chief data officer Andoy Montiel.

Regionally, the Cordillera Administrative Region recorded the highest increase in basket size at 101.7%, followed by the National Capital Region at 85% and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao at 80.2%.

The stockpiling trend spans both essential and discretionary categories. Cigarettes posted the highest sales increase at around 234 million pesos (US$3.9 million), followed by detergent, gin, powdered coffee, and chips and dips.

Other staples such as soda, biscuits, powdered milk, and canned goods also saw notable gains, reflecting heightened household preparation for potential price increases and supply gaps.

While the data underscores the adaptability of sari-sari stores, it also highlights their structural vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks.

“As the backbone of local communities, sari-sari stores continue to demonstrate resilience in times of disruption. However, they remain highly vulnerable to price fluctuations and logistical challenges, highlighting the need for continued support,” said Packworks chief platform officer Hubert Yap.

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