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Global ad spend growth to slow in 2017

Global advertising expenditure will rise 4.5% over all of 2016, but then its growth rate is expected to dip to 4.2% in 2017, according to the latest ad forecast from Warc.

All 13 markets covered in the report are forecast to see ad spend increase both this year and the next, but growth is expected to soften in eight markets, including China and the US, the world’s largest ad market.

According to the analysis, India is expected to see the strongest annual rise in ad spend, growing 13.3% and 13.4% respectively.

All four BRIC markets, India (+13.4%), China (+7.1%), Russia (+6.1%) and Brazil (+2.1%), are expected to post rises in ad expenditure this year and next.

Ad spend growth by country

 
2016 vs 2015
year-on-year % change
2017 vs 2016
year-on-year % change
India
13.3
13.4
China
7.8
7.1
Russia
5.8
6.1
Spain
5.8
5.2
UK
5.6
4.3
US
5.1
2.8
Australia
3.8
3.8
Brazil
3.3
2.1
Italy
2.8
1.6
Germany
2.1
1.8
Canada
2.0
2.4
Japan
1.7
1.7
France
1.3
0.8
Global
4.5
4.2

The presidential election campaign and the Summer Olympics in Brazil boosted the US ad market this year, but growth is expected to cool next year when the impact of these events dissipates.

Despite the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit process by which the UK will leave the European Union in 2017, the nation’s ad market is forecast to record an ad spend growth of 5.6% this year and 4.3% next year; both above the global rates.

“The latest consensus results present a positive outlook for advertising investment at both a global and local level,” said James McDonald, senior research analyst at Warc.

Global ad spend growth by medium

 
2016 vs 2015
year-on-year % change
2017 vs 2016
year-on-year % change
Mobile
47.1
34.2
Internet
14.6
13.0
Out of home
3.4
3.2
Cinema
3.1
5.1
TV
2.8
1.1
Radio
0.4
0.3
Magazines
-5.9
-4.5
Newspapers
-8.0
-6.1

All media, barring newspapers and magazines, are predicted to record year-on-year growth in 2017, with mobile expected to see the greatest ad spend rise, up 34.2%. Total internet (including mobile) growth is expected to be 13% next year, while TV, the world’s largest ad channel by spend, is forecast to post a growth of 1.1%.

Warc’s ad forecast is based on a weighted average of ad spend predictions at current prices from ad agencies, media monitoring companies, analysts, Warc’s own team and other industry bodies.

Current sources include Carat, eMarketer, GroupM, Magna Global, Nikkei Advertising Research Institute (NARI), Pitch-Madison, Pivotal Research Group and ZenithOptimedia.

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