China’s retail sales up 3.7% YoY in July

China's retail sales rose by 3.7% YoY in July 2025, reaching RMB$3.87 trillion. However, the figure fell short of market expectations of 4.6% and marked the smallest growth recorded so far this year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Breaking down by sector, goods retail sales rose by 4% to RMB$3.4276 trillion , whereas the catering industry recorded more modest growth of 1.1%, totalling RMB$450.4 billion.

Demand remained robust for essential goods, with supermarket categories such as grain, oil, and food rising by 8.6%, alongside daily necessities (+8.2%). Premium segments including sports and leisure goods and jewellery rose by 13.7% and 8.2% respectively.

Government-led trade-in policies further stimulated spending, particularly in home upgrades and electronics. Sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 28.7%, followed by furniture (+20.6%), communications devices (+14.9%), and office supplies (+13.8%).

From January to July 2025, cumulative data revealed a 4.8% increase in total retail sales, amounting to RMB$28.4 trillion. ECommerce remained a key driver, with online retail sales climbing by 9.2% to RMB$8.68 trillion, whereas physical goods accounted for RMB$7.08 trillion of that figure, representing 6.3% growth and 24.9% of all retail sales.

Meanwhile, the services sector expanded by 5.2%, led by positive performances in culture, sports, and leisure activities, as well as communications, tourism, and transport services.

Fixed-asset investment

From January to July, China’s fixed-asset investment (excluding rural households) reached RMB$28.8 trillion, marking a YoY increase of 1.6%. However, when excluding real estate development investment, fixed-asset investment grew by a more robust 5.3%.

By sector, infrastructure investment rose by 3.2%, while manufacturing investment expanded by 6.2%. In contrast, real estate development investment declined by 12.0%. The national sales area of newly built commercial housing stood at 515.6 million square metres, down 4.0% YoY, with sales volumes dropping 6.5% to RMB$4.96 trillion.

High-tech industries demonstrated strong growth, with investment in aircraft and spacecraft equipment manufacturing surging 33.9%, information services up 32.8%, and computer and office equipment manufacturing rising 16%. On a monthly basis, fixed-asset investment (excluding rural households) declined by 0.63% in July compared to the previous month.

Trade

In July, China’s total goods imports and exports reached RMB$3.91 trillion, up 6.7% YoY. Exports rose 8% to RMB$2.3 trillion, while imports increased 4.8% to RMB$1.6 trillion. For the first seven months of the year, the cumulative value of goods trade stood at RMB$25.7 trillion, a 3.5% increase compared to the same period last year. Exports grew 7.3% to RMB$15.3 trillion, while imports declined 1.6% to RMB$10.4 trillion.

General trade, which accounts for 64% of total trade volume, expanded by 2.1% during the January to July period. Meanwhile, private enterprises saw their trade volume rise 7.4%, making up 57.1% of total trade, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from a year earlier. Electromechanical products, a key export category, grew by 9.3% and accounted for 60% of total exports.

Linghui Fu, spokesperson of NBS said: "In July, the international environment remained complex and severe, with persistent impacts from trade protectionism and unilateralism. Domestically, extreme weather conditions such as heatwaves, torrential rains, and floods in some regions also posed short-term challenges to economic operations. The deepening development of a unified domestic market has supported sustained growth in production and demand, stable employment and prices, and the expansion of new growth drivers, maintaining a steady and progressive economic trajectory."

"However, it must be noted that external uncertainties and instabilities persist, while domestic supply continues to outstrip demand, with some structural issues still emerging. The foundation for economic recovery still requires consolidation," Fu added.

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