China’s KOL economy risks brands over payment transparency

As China's influencer market expands, the lack of payment transparency poses a significant financial risk for brands. New data from R3's 2026 China Social KOL Governance Whitepaper reveals that while official key opinion leader (KOL) rate cards increased by 11.6% in 2025, actual transaction costs decreased by 3.4%, highlighting a concerning "scissors gap."

The research, based on R3’s ACE Database, shows that overall marketing budget growth is slowing, down from 32% in 2022 to 18% in 2025.

However, social marketing remains a top priority. While marketers' expected investment growth for overall marketing and social marketing both stood at 19% in 2022, a gap emerged in subsequent years.

Within digital, KOL is the new centre of gravity. The strongest growth signals are in KOL seeding (49%) and KOL commerce (43%), outpacing other formats including social and eCommerce search ads (37%), AI-conversational search Ads (31%), and feeds ads (30%).

A similar trend is reflected in 2025 social marketing priorities. KOL content marketing leads as the top priority (74%), followed by brand-owned live streaming (47%), and key opinion consumer (KOC)/employee advocacy (37%).

Notably, brands are increasingly allocating budget to paid amplification of existing KOL content rather than simply producing more. Approximately 30% plan to increase paid amplification for KOL content, while only 17% will increase KOL content buying.

Meanwhile, brands are reducing reliance on high-cost top-tier KOLs, reallocating budgets towards mid-tier creators and KOCs, who offer more flexible pricing and easier scalability.

Looking ahead, the market is projected to grow a steady 8.03% to RMB$117.2 billion in 2025. Yet, the persistence of the "scissors gap" ensures pricing pressure will remain a permanent fixture.

To analyse the phenomenon, R3 has identified a three-tier misalignment where transparency erodes, from multi-channel network (MCN) rate cards to nominal negotiated prices, and finally to the actual total cost paid, which often hides implicit markups. This lack of clarity leaves brands unable to benchmark costs or explain the drivers behind total expenditure, making it difficult to prove operational efficiency or identify waste.

Moreover, transparency issues extend to partner collaborations: while partners typically provide both planning advice and execution support, cost breakdowns, role delineations, and incentive structures remain opaque. Without an auditable disclosure mechanism, there is no way to validate whether decisions are cost-efficient or optimal for the brand.

In terms of data, measurement is fragmented and campaign-by-campaign, with inconsistent definitions across platforms and time windows, while risk is managed reactively, with limited checkpoints across selection, content production, and distribution.

Looking toward 2026, R3 has suggested the challenge for marketers is no longer just "finding the right KOL," but managing a structural shift in investment volume.

To turn these challenges into structural growth, R3 advocates upgrading from case-by-case project management to enterprise-level governance, leveraging its "B.U.I.L.D." governance framework. This framework is defined by five core principles.

B (Business first) prioritises brand goals; U (Unified) mandates consistent pricing structures; I (In-design control) embeds governance at the brief stage; L (Linked decisions) synergises independent oversight with cross-functional decision-making; and D (Data-driven) means a clear KPI metrics.

"The value of data lies in its ability to be measured," said Sabrina Li, managing director at R3‌. "Our objective is not to eliminate market uncertainty, but to provide leaders with a unified governance language to defend and optimise their investments in China's dynamic future."

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