Meta set to overtake Google in global digital ad revenue

The balance of power in digital advertising is set to shift, with Meta forecast to surpass Google in global ad revenues for the first time by the end of 2026, according to Emarketer’s latest outlook.

The shift marks a milestone moment for the industry, as Meta is expected to not only close the gap but pull ahead in both total revenue and market share.

Meta is projected to generate US$243.46 billion in net worldwide ad revenue in 2026, ahead of Google’s US$239.54 billion.

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This comes after Google maintained the lead in 2025, posting US$214.06 billion in ad revenue compared with Meta’s US$196.17 billion.

The momentum shift is being driven by Meta’s accelerating growth trajectory. The company is forecast to grow 24.1% in 2026, up from 22.1% in 2025.

Google, by contrast, is expected to maintain a steadier growth rate of 11.9% in 2026.

In terms of market share, Google still holds the largest slice of global digital ad spend at 26.4%, though this has been steadily declining since 2021. Meta’s share, meanwhile, has been climbing and is expected to edge ahead in 2026 with 26.8%.

While the spotlight is on the top two players, Amazon continues to strengthen its position in the digital ad market.

Amazon is expected to generate US$68.64 billion in 2025, rising to US$82.07 billion in 2026 and US$97.07 billion in 2027. Its share of global digital ad spend is projected to reach 9% in 2026, up from 8% in 2024.

Together, Meta, Google and Amazon are expected to account for 62.3% of total worldwide digital ad spend in 2026. That dominance is projected to edge slightly higher through 2028, reinforcing the concentration of power among a small number of tech platforms.

The forecast was finalised shortly before recent court rulings involving Meta and YouTube, though Emarketer noted it does not expect the decisions to materially impact its figures.

Analysts at Emarketer said Meta’s rise reflects long-standing structural advantages in digital advertising. “In surpassing Google, Meta has essentially had many of its core strategies validated,” said Max Willens, principal analyst. “Meta has long understood that scale, network effects, and habits are more important than anything else in digital media. It has carefully built and defended the advantages it has in all three areas.”

Willens added that for advertisers, Meta has effectively become a question of scale rather than entry. “For the vast majority of advertisers, the question is not whether they should spend money on Meta’s apps, but how much they should spend,” he said.

On Google, Willens said the company still has room to accelerate growth, but its structure presents challenges.

“Google has plenty of levers it can pull to try to speed up growth,” he said. “But the diversity of its business—it generates billions of dollars in subscriber revenues from YouTube Premium, for example—may make it harder for it to leapfrog past Meta in terms of digital ad revenues.”

Separately, Zach Goldner, senior forecasting analyst at Emarketer, said Meta’s growth is not coming from a single source but is instead unlocking more value across its entire ecosystem.

“Tools such as Advantage+, AI-generated ad creatives and its broader automation stack are improving performance across both Facebook and Instagram, with Reels being a key beneficiary. As a result, advertisers are getting better bang for their buck, and that’s pulling more ad dollars onto the platform,” he said.

Goldner added that legal developments are unlikely to materially shift advertiser behaviour in the near term. “These cases will take years to fully play out through appeals and additional trials, and they don’t immediately force changes to how these platforms operate today,” he said.

“More importantly, advertisers don’t reallocate billions of dollars based on legal risk—they follow performance, and that is the bigger driver behind the shifting balance between Meta and Google," Goldner added.

In tandem, Drew Spink, senior forecasting analyst at Emarketer, said, “The consolidation of digital ad dollars around Google, Meta, and Amazon reflects a compounding advantage of first-party data, AI integrations, and audience reach. Smaller platforms and traditional media can’t replicate these capabilities in comparable cost or speed, and as a result, incremental budgets continue to flow toward them.”

Separately, broader market conditions continue to support ad spend growth, with global advertising set to surpass US$1 trillion for the first time in 2026, according to dentsu’s December 2025 "Global ad spend forecast".

The report said growth is expected to outpace the global economy, driven by sustained demand for digital channels and improving advertiser confidence. It added that 86% of CMOs expect budgets to increase over the next 12 months, with media increasingly seen as a direct driver of business growth.

Digital formats remain the dominant growth engine, with dentsu highlighting continued expansion in retail media, social video and programmatic advertising.

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