Australia’s $233bn tourism boom is a brand opportunity hiding in plain sight

Australia’s visitor economy is quietly entering its most valuable growth phase in more than a decade – and the real upside isn’t just more tourists, but better ones.

New forecasts from Tourism Research Australia (TRA) and Austrade show total visitor spend is on track to reach $233 billion by 2030, up from a record $180.6 billion in 2024, as travel demand across APAC accelerates and domestic travel patterns evolve.

The new data suggests Australia is on track to become a larger, richer and more complex attention market for tourists across Asia Pacific, one that will reward smarter media, sharper creative and a deeper understanding of movement.

In the short term, the uplift is immediate. Total visitor spend is forecast to rise 6% to $191.6 billion in 2025, driven by a rebound in international travel and a surge in domestic day trips. Over the next five years, spend is expected to grow at 4% annually, outpacing inflation and reinforcing tourism as one of the country’s most reliable growth engines.

“Travel has become much more of a must in the Australian lifestyle these days,” said Garrett Tyler-Parker, director of analysis and insights at Austrade. “It will be budgeted for. It will happen. What changes is how people travel.”

China is leading APAC demand

International arrivals are forecast to climb from 8.8 million in 2025 to 10.9 million by 2030, with APAC markets doing the heavy lifting. China is expected to be the fastest-growing inbound market across the forecast period, supported by recovering outbound demand, expanded aviation capacity and the return of education, business and long-stay travel.

By 2030, international visitor spend in Australia is projected to reach $46 billion, up from $32.9 billion in 2024, even as travellers become more value-conscious and selective.

“International arrivals are going to be expanding significantly,” Tyler-Parker said. “That growth is being driven by recovering Asian markets, especially China, alongside Australia’s strong reputation as a safe and desirable destination.”

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For brands, this reinforces the need to think APAC-first, not just “international”. Chinese, Indian, Southeast Asian and New Zealand visitors behave differently, consume different media and spend differently once they arrive. One-size-fits-all international planning will increasingly miss the mark.

Domestic travel fragmenting

While international growth grabs headlines, the domestic market is undergoing its own structural shift. Australians are still travelling in huge numbers, but they’re doing it differently.

In 2025, domestic day trips are forecast to jump 10%, with spend rising 18% to $46 billion, as cost-of-living pressures push travellers toward shorter, closer-to-home experiences. Domestic overnight spend is expected to dip slightly in the short term as Australians opt for fewer nights away, before resuming steady growth later in the decade.

By 2030, domestic tourism spend is forecast to hit $187 billion, split between $130 billion in overnight trips and $57 billion in day trips.

“We’re seeing people travel closer to home and take shorter trips,” Tyler-Parker said. “Day trips fit that pattern. As household financial pressures ease, overnight travel starts to lift again.”

Tyler-Parker argues that for marketers, this fragmentation matters. Growth is shifting toward high-frequency, lower-cost travel moments – weekend drives, regional events, food, sport and cultural experiences – rather than long holidays. That plays directly into OOH, retail, QSR, events and location-based activations.

Outbound travel is the wildcard

Australians’ love of overseas travel remains strong, with outbound trips forecast to reach 14.9 million by 2030. The gap between Australians travelling overseas and inbound visitors – known as net outbound travel – is expected to stabilise around 4 million trips a year, becoming a new normal.

Outbound travel can dampen domestic overnight demand in the short term, but it also increases aviation capacity and keeps Australia deeply connected to APAC travel flows.

“It’s a balancing act,” Tyler-Parker said. “Outbound travel is a factor, but it also supports capacity and connectivity that ultimately benefits inbound markets.”

This forecast cycle is also the first built on DoTS (Domestic Tourism Statistics), a new world-leading system that combines surveys with anonymised mobile mobility data. The shift gives marketers, planners and policymakers a far more granular view of how people actually move.

“It gives us more robust, more timely and more detailed insights into domestic travel,” Tyler-Parker said.

For brands, that ultimately means better regional targeting, stronger forecasting and more confidence aligning media and experiential investment with real-world behaviour.