APAC to see lower media inflation in 2022, offline inflation higher than online

Global media inflation is predicted to recover this year, rising beyond the peaks of 2021 and surpassing pre-COVID inflation levels in 2019. Globally, all media is expected to be inflationary, according to the ECI Media Management Q1 2022 Media Inflation Report, with offline inflation higher than online, due to strong TV inflation. Meanwhile, online media inflation remains consistent across most markets, having maintained stability throughout the pandemic.

Online video is enjoying the strongest growth in inflation of the online media types. Print inflation continues to decline steadily although this is expected to slow in 2022, while newspapers may even see a slight growth in inflation in 2022 overall.

Asia Pacific is expected to see lower overall media inflation this year than any other region (2.9% versus 4.5% globally). Inflation is expected for all media except magazines but at modest levels. China is the main driver of inflation in this region; it will see no inflation for TV in 2022, while online media and OOH are expected to inflate, although still only moderately. Offline inflation rates in China are expected to remain consistent with the previous period. The country's online display is predicted to dip slightly, whereas online video will remain consistent with 2021 levels.

In 2021, online media types in China witnessed a dip in their 2020 positioning, while offline media types remained relatively consistent with their 2020 positions. Over a five-year period, the report found that most media followed a similar trend throughout the period, with dips in 2020 flowing into stagnation in 2021 and 2022.

Indonesia

Indonesia's media forecast is expected to remain the same as 2021 across the board, except for OOH which is predicted to see a slight increase in inflation. Last year, OOH and online media remained consistent with 2020 rates while TV, radio, and print all experienced lowering deflation levels.

Meanwhile, across a five-year period, the report found that all media followed a similar trend, although radio exhibited more volatility. Shocks in 2020 led to an overall lowering in inflation from 2020 to 2022 compared to 2019.

Hong Kong

Non-OOH offline media are expected to continue on a trend towards zero inflation, while online and OOH are forecast to dip slightly below their 2021 positions. Last year, online media types in Hong Kong witnessed little shift from their 2020 positions. While OOH showed the steepest increase in inflation, other offline media tended towards zero inflation.

Singapore

Inflation rates for all media are expected to fall in Singapore compared to the previous year. That said, online is expected to suffer the sharpest decrease in inflation rates. The year 2021 saw slight bumps in inflation for online, TV, OOH, and radio while print remained consistent with 2020. Across the five-year period, most media followed a similar trend across the period, with most peaking in 2019, followed by dips in 2020 as a result of the pandemic's impact.

Malaysia

In Malaysia, all media types are expected to witness decreased inflation this year compared to the previous year. According to the report, TV and online are predicted to suffer the heaviest impact. Last year, online and TV both experienced a slight decrease compared to their 2020 positions, while OOH and radio enjoyed a marginal increase.

The five-year trend in Malaysia showed that radio displayed high volatility, with an overall downward trend seen across all media.

Philippines

In 2022, all media types in the Philippines are expected to see a recovery, with increases to inflation above 2021 levels. Last year, ECI found that most media shifted very little from their 2020 positions. Online and TV, in particular, experienced lower shits than other media. Meanwhile, across a period of five years, ECI said the impact of 2020 led to a downward trend for all media that year. There was stagnation in 2021, which is expected to continue in this year.

Fredrik Kinge, global CEO of ECI Media Management, said media prices inflated overall in 2021 and this was particularly true in key markets and especially for TV, which saw increasing inflation as the year progressed and hit a high in Q4.

"With inflation in most markets now recovered and surpassing 2019 levels we are expecting inflation in 2022 to continue rising. TV and online inflation continue to increase across the world; the former is particularly noticeable as it was so heavily impacted by the events of 2020. These media represent the lion’s share of most media budgets, so as their prices increase, it is more important than ever that advertiser media investments are effective; optimisation and transparency are key," he explained.

ECI Media Management’s annual Media Inflation Report forecasts media inflation for seven key media channels in the first quarter of each year - TV, online display, online video, newspapers, magazines, OOH and radio, at a global and regional level, and across 50 countries. An update to these forecasts is published later in the year.

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